Dragon User


Predictor

Author: Roland Hewson
Publisher: John Penn
Machine: Dragon 32

 
Published in Dragon User #050

The program itself tells you that Predictor is a utility program which predicts the results of horse racing (both National Hunt and flat) and football matches (both League and Cup). Regrettably what it does not tell you is the amoung of information required to arrive at a prediction. Messrs Bennet and Hurley have worked hard at their program and it, in turn, makes the user work hard on the keyboard.

On the horse racing side, it asks for information from the given form, the number of firsts, seconds, thirds and fourths, whether the horse is a course or distance winner, the extra weight if any, and whether or not the going is in the horse's favour. Subsequently you have to input the price in two halves as shown in the betting forecast. Finally, the number of times the horse has finished outside the first four and the number of races the horse was considered 'in form'.

Needless to say, the prediction is based upon mathematical probability with differing weighting given to each horse depending on the information submitted, and on a day when the favourites romp home, the program seems first rate; however when the outsiders are first to cross the line, the program doesn't seem so good.

On the football side, a similar wealth of information is required - the points from the last six games, the position in the league, the 'home form', the first home points, and the number of home games played. Similarly, the same information is required for the 'away' games, and of course for the opponents. Inputting all this for sixteen teams on a coupon takes a long, long time.

The program is, in my view, unfinished in its present form. It does not allow a database to be built up, so each week all that information for the football teams has to be re-input, there is no save facility to identify what was actually done, nor is there a printout routine.

The newspapers' sports coverage and predictions are just as good, and much quicker to read. And, judging by the results of the Grand National the tea lady's hatpin is as good as any. Verdict on Predictor? Full marks for effort, but only one dragon, I'm afraid.

Roland Hewson

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